Even with the current best track data, the 1982 Pacific Typhoon Season is an above average one in terms of metrics like ACE and PDI. However, the season occurred alongside one of the strongest El Ninos on record, in the ballpark with the 1997 and 2015 El Ninos. When also including the very strong El Nino year of 1972, it is notable that 1982 is the only of these four very strong El Nino seasons to fail and reach 400 units of ACE in the best track data. Furthermore, 1982 featured a rather low number of super typhoons. JTWC data only has two for the season, Bess and Mac. This seems somewhat unusual for an El Nino season, especially one as strong as 1982’s. For these reasons, the 1982 Pacific Typhoon Season is the next season I decided to reanalyze. My summary tables for the 1982 best track data is below.
While reanalyzing the systems of the 1982 Pacific Typhoon Season, I began to have some issues with my wind radius estimates derived from JMA data. Even after reducing them via the method explained in my reanalysis introduction entry, the derived 34 kt wind radii were still very large and likely too large in many cases. In order to combat this, I began to also use a version of KZC that derives the storm size parameter ‘S’ from the radius of the outermost closed isobar rather than the 34 kt wind radius. This ROCI method of using KZC is laid out by Knapp et al. However, I began to have some issues with some of the more intense estimates above 155 kt or so where winds appeared to begin increasing more than they should. After some playing around and testing things (data from Patrica ’15 was particularly helpful) I came up with a tweak that appeared to iron the higher intensities out. For intensities above 127 kt, I would use the ROCI derived S parameter back-solve for a dummy 34 kt wind radius at a 127 kt intensity. Because the operational KZC that uses 34 kt wind radii to derive the S parameter involves using a modified rankine vortex in the original Knaff & Zehr, maximum sustained winds have an influence on the S parameter. The dummy 34 kt wind radius is then used with the Vmax and other data in the operational version of KZC to derive a modified S parameter. This helped greatly with estimating both wind speeds and pressures at the higher intensities.
After reanalysis (summary tables above), the 1982 Pacific Typhoon Season gets a notable upward bump in most metrics, including pushing the season’s ACE above 400 units. The difference between the best track data and the reanalysis data can be found here. Perhaps the most notable difference between the two is the huge increase in the number of super typhoons in the reanalysis data. I upgraded six additional systems to 130 kt or higher (Nelson, Andy, Cecil, Ellis, Nancy, and Pamela), bringing the total number of super typhoons up to eight. The number of tropical storm days for several systems went down slightly in response to me analyzing them to have transitioned to an extratropical system or a remnant low earlier than best track data indicates, but like my findings for the 1979 Pacific Typhoon Season, there are many intensity increases over the largely AH77 derived intensities in JTWC best track. Some of the more interesting systems will now be discussed in more detail.
02W Nelson: Vmax = 130 kt (C4), ACE = 23.33, PDI = 20.056
Nelson was a small early season straight running typhoon that rapidly intensified prior to landfall on the Philippine island of Leyte on March 25th. Just before landfall and near the time of the image above, a minimum pressure of 934 mb was recorded by aircraft recon between 07Z and 08Z on March 25th. I ended up using the 934 mb as the 06Z pressure and overall lowest pressure for the system, although the next pass less than two hours later had risen to 938 mb as Nelson began interacting with the Philippines. Combined with the near 24 hour gap in recon coverage prior to the 934 mb pass, it isn’t impossible that Nelson’s pressure was a little lower in the few hours previous to recon’s arrival, perhaps in the neighborhood of 930 mb or so. Satellite presentation for the small system was very impressive just prior to landfall with instantaneous DTs of 7.5 and approaching 8.0 at times. KZC output for the system with the 934 mb pressure was about 130 kt, which is the basis for my peak intensity. Nelson is the first of my eight analyzed super typhoons for 1982.
10W Andy: Vmax = 130 kt (C4), ACE = 20.88, PDI = 19.47475
Andy was the first in a string of several intense typhoons beginning in late July and continuing through the following months. Andy developed from the same monsoon trough setup that spawned Super Typhoon Bess, and both existed together for most of their lives, with Andy to the west and Bess to the east. For the most part, Andy was a large and sloppy storm and had a slow, steady pressure drop for most of its development. However, between 00Z and 12Z July 27th, a tiny pinhole core developed within the sprawling circulation, and in response the pressure rapidly dropped from 944 mb to 915 mb in that timeframe. Unfortunately, the 915 mb recon pass at 0921Z July 27th was the last mission flown into the typhoon. I maintained the 915 mb pressure for the 12Z July 27th best track point as well as used it for the system’s overall deepest pressure. Satellite presentation at the time (image above) was the most impressive over the system’s life. Andy appeared to enter eyewall replacement almost immediately afterwards. Owing to the somewhat unusual structure, the maximum sustained winds at the time are a little more uncertain than usual. When using KZC, the maximum sustained winds expected are about 130 kt. Additionally, AH77 and the ROCI version of KZC output winds of 125 kt and 135 kt, respectively. I ended up going with 130 kt for peak intensity, making Andy my second super typhoon of the 1982 Pacific Typhoon Season. Andy ended up making landfall in Taiwan a little over a day later with an intensity I assessed at 105 kt. Despite increasing the Vmax over the best track data, Andy is one of the few systems I analyzed to have less ACE and PDI than best track.
11W Bess: Vmax = 150 kt (C5), ACE = 39.6975, PDI = 44.860875
As mentioned above, Bess developed out of the same monsoon trough setup as Andy, emerging a ways to Andy’s east. Bess is one of the two super typhoons originally assessed by JTWC, and that doesn’t change here. Like it’s contemporary Andy, Bess was a large tropical system that only deepened gradually initially. Also like Andy, Bess ended up going through a phase of rapid intensification, although Bess ended up doing so on July 28th, about 24 hours after Andy did so. Unlike Andy, Bess deepened with a much more stable core structure, allowing the system to drop as low as 901 mb by 00Z July 29th, which is around the time of the satellite image above. Bess is one of the systems in which the wind radii derived from JMA data appeared to be too large. With an average wind radius of about 300 nm derived at peak intensity, KZC expected a maximum sustained wind of 145 kt. This is a very low Vmax for a 901 mb pressure, and while Bess was a large system, a 300 nm wind radius is really probably pushing it. I also derived a 450 nm outermost closed isobar radius and ended up with an expected Vmax closer to 155 kt when using that version of KZC. I ended up settling on a compromise intensity of 150 kt since the T7.0 satellite presentation did not strike me as one that would belong to a large 155 kt system. Following peak intensity, Bess began to steadily weaken as it approached Japan. Bess ended up landfalling on the main Japanese island of Honshu as a minimal typhoon (estimated 65 kt). Despite this, Bess became one of the most impactful typhoons in Japan for the time.
12W Cecil: Vmax = 135 kt (C4), ACE = 23.3025, PDI = 23.603375
As Bess was impacting Japan, Cecil was beginning to organize over the Philippine Sea. Unlike with the previous two systems, Cecil was a small to normal sized system. While slowly meandering to the east of the Luzon Strait, Cecil began to rapidly intensify, dropping 50 mb in 24 hours on August 7th. Based on a 700 mb height of 2369 m, Cecil’s minimum pressure is estimated at 917 mb at 06Z August 8th. Such a pressure is usually low enough to indicate a category 5 system, especially for one of a more typical size, but the slow and erratic movement and low background pressures were working against Cecil in this case. Additionally, satellite imagery near peak intensity (above) did not match typical category 5 presentation. KZC analysis at the time of the estimated 917 mb pressure yielded outputs near 135 kt, and this value is chosen for the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI). This makes Cecil the fourth of my eight analyzed 1982 super typhoons. Cecil then traveled north up the East China and Yellow Seas, eventually making landfall in North Korea as a greatly diminished storm.
14W Ellis: Vmax = 145 kt (C5), ACE = 30.5825, PDI = 33.036125
A brief gap existed between Cecil’s demise and Ellis’s development, but Ellis continued the string of notable typhoons that began with Andy and Bess in July. Like Andy and Bess, Ellis is another large storm that developed from the monsoon trough east of the Mariana Islands. Ellis began a steady to rapid deepening early in its life and continued to do so until reaching pressures below 915 mb late August 22nd. The lowest extrapolated pressure of 913-914 mb came near 22Z August 22nd, but it came following a ~12 hour gap in recon coverage, and the next several passes all came in a couple millibars higher than the preceding one, so it is possible if not likely that the pressure was a few millibars lower in the recon coverage gap. Like with Bess, my derived wind radii appeared too large at times, so I leaned much more heavily on the version of KZC that uses the radius of the outermost closed isobar to calculate the S parameter at the higher intensities. Based on a 140 kt intensity estimated with an analyzed 915 mb pressure at 00Z August 23rd, the LMI is set 5 kt higher to 145 kt at 18Z August 22nd. Using the LMI to backsolve for pressure, it is estimated that Ellis achieved a minimum pressure of 911 mb coincident with the LMI. This certainly appears reasonable based on the prior pressure falls and following pressure rises. The 145 kt/911 mb intensity estimate also appears reasonable based on satellite imagery near peak intensity (above). Following peak intensity, Ellis begin to steadily weaken, continuing to do so until a Kyushu landfall several days later as an analyzed category 1 typhoon. Ellis is the fifth of my eight analyzed super typhoons for the season.
15W Faye: Vmax = 95 kt, ACE = 13.3525, PDI = 9.671125
Typhoon Faye is not significant because of the intensity it achieved. I only assessed a peak intensity of 95 kt before making landfall in western Luzon. After the landfall, Faye nearly dissipated, recon missions into what was left of the system were halted. It is at this point when things became interesting. During the time absent of recon missions, Faye developed and maintained a small area of convection. Then on August 28th, an eye appeared right in the center of this small area of convection. After nearly dissipating after crossing Luzon, Faye reinvented itself as a true micro-typhoon with one of smallest, if not the smallest, convective footprints I have observed in a tropical cyclone. Recon missions into Faye then resumed, but not until slightly after peak intensity. Still, pressures a little below 980 mb were found in the very small system. I estimate a peak intensity of 75 kt/977 mb at 12Z August 28th (around the time of the image above), but there is some uncertainly with this estimate.
23W Mac: Vmax = 160 kt, ACE = 39.98, PDI = 51.53075
Mac is the deepest typhoon observed during the 1982 Pacific Typhoon Season, so it isn’t a surprise that it is the strongest I have analyzed. Mac is also the sixth of the eight super typhoons analyzed. As is common in El Nino years, Mac developed out of the monsoon trough to the east of Guam. LMI is determined to be 160 kt based on the measured 895 mb pressure between 18Z October 4th and 00Z October 5th and both versions of KZC. After weakening from peak intensity, I have assessed that Mac became a category 5 a second time at 12Z October 6th, reaching a secondary minimum pressure six hours later at 911 mb. Aside from passing near Guam early in the system’s existence, Mac did not impact any land areas, threading the needle between a few groups of islands such as the Bonin Island while recurving into the extratropical North Pacific.
24W Nancy: Vmax = 130 kt, ACE = 23.5425, PDI = 23.418375
Nancy was a straight tracking westerly typhoon that spent almost its entire existence between 16ºN and 18ºN. During the 36 hours prior to landfall in north Luzon, the typhoon began to rapidly deepen, reaching a measured 933 mb just before landfall. Both versions of KZC estimate a 130 kt intensity at the time, and this is chosen as the LMI, making Nancy the seventh super typhoon of the year. Somewhat unusually, Nancy maintained good core structure following the system’s crossing of Luzon, allowing the system to reach an estimated secondary peak intensity of 120 kt by 18Z October 16th. No recon missions were flown into Nancy near the time of this secondary intensity peak, but I derived a 939 mb at the time using KZC.
27W Pamela: Vmax = 130 kt, ACE = 25.48, PDI = 22.549
Pamela, my final super typhoon of 1982, is a system that featured several rapid swings in intensity both up and down during its primarily westward track across the Tropical Western Pacific in late November and early December. Pamela originated at the far eastern reached of the basin near the International Date Line and began it long journey west at the beginning of November’s final week. While moving west fairly rapidly, Pamela began to rapidly deepen, featuring a 19 mb drop in 6 hours and 30 mb drop in 12 hours between November 26th and 27th down to a measured 940 mb pressure. Such a pressure is fairly high for a super typhoon, but the combination of faster than average movement, low latitude, and high background pressures mean that KZC derived intensity at the time of the 940 mb pressure was 130 kt. Considering the satellite signature (above) also supported such an intensity, I set the 130 kt to the 06Z November 27th best track point with the 940 mb pressure. After a little weakening and then some oscillating between category 3 and 4 intensity through November 28th, Pamela then began a period of rapid weakening, with pressures rising just as fast as they fell during the initial episode of rapid intensification. Pamela spent the last few days of November and first few days of December as a weak generally westward moving storm with pressures hovering around 1000 mb until intensification began again. A second bout of rapid intensification began on December 4th, ending with a 958 mb pressure and assigned 105 kt intensity at 00Z December 5th. This peak was short lived though, falling back to tropical storm intensity by December 6th before making one last brief stint at minimal typhoon intensity before crossing southwestward through the central Philippines and dissipating over the South China Sea.